(7-26-16) With the markets pushing new highs, not only in the U.S., but also in Europe and Japan, you can tell what the markets think about Trump's chance to become president. The markets are telling us now that Trump doesn't have a prayer.
So what's the evidence for this conclusion? During this campaign season, you'd see the markets coming under some pressure -- but they haven't because of the Trump Factor.
In other words, the markets behave as if Hillary is "in like Flynn," as they used to say. Otherwise if there was a serious belief that Trump was going to be the next president, markets would already be more jittery than they already are. The markets would be more volatile and more nervous because of what a Trump presidency would mean for equities.
There's a fear on Wall Street of what Trump would mean for equities, based on how hes been campaigning and what he's been saying because of his populist line. Markets have always been frightened of populists -- and they would be particularly frightened of Donald Trump because Trump goes way beyond populism.